Thursday, June 28, 2007

The kind of war we can win

Did you notice the story yesterday about unrest in Tehran? You see these stories pop up occasionally, and I'm always disappointed by the lack of fanfare that accompanies them.

Everyone frets about war with Iran, myself included, and such dire predictions of global conflict always receive great media coverage. But when the possibility of avoiding such a conflict arises, it passes without analysis. We have a real opportunity to win the war against Iran without ever firing a missile.

A couple of hard facts about Iran: the $70/barrel price of oil has the government swimming in money. They've chosen to spend this money unwisely...building up their military, funding terrorism, and subsidizing gasoline...instead of expanding their oil-refining capacity and building their economy. Despite being one of the world's largest oil producers, they are forced to import 40% of the gasoline they consume from other countries. In addition, thanks to the subsidies and other restrictive goverment policies, inflation is skyrocketing in Iran: it's at 17% and climbing.

As knuckleheads tend to do, the Ahmadinejad government is quickly enacting laws that will make the problem even worse. By rationing gasoline, they'll not only drive up the price of illegal gasoline, but they'll stall the Iranian economy at the same time by limiting consumption. This delicious mix of stagflation is already causing riots in the capital.

If we play our diplomatic cards correctly, putting the economic screws to Iran with the support of the U.N., without provoking military action, the Iranian people just may take care of this problem for us. Whether the downfall comes through legitimate elections or open revolution, the Ahmadinejad government isn't long for this world. If Bush can just keep his missiles in his pants long enough, we might win a war without a single American casualty, and without losing even more credibility with the rest of the world.

Now if we instead attack Iran, the people are more likely to unify against an aggressor. They are more likely to overlook hardship in the name of defending their country. Let's hope that Georgie does the right thing for once.

Just imagine what kind of trouble the Iranian economy will suffer when oil prices come down. At $40 oil, Iran won't be able to subsidize terrorism or gasoline.


At 11:00 PM, Blogger sparrowlegs said...

I laughed out loud when I read:

If Bush can just keep his missiles in his pants long enough, ...

Beautiful...and sad. You know he'll make the wrong choice.


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