Thursday, December 17, 2009

Week 15 Picks

I could quit while I'm ahead, but instead I'll take this three-week opportunity to dive under .500 for the season. I'm going to switch up the format a little bit, I was never comfortable with the old way that I did it.

  • Jacksonville +3.5 vs. Indianapolis - The Jags are a good bet to keep it close anytime against the Colts. Factor in a short-week road game, and the probability that Manning and his fellow starters won't play the whole game, and I'm loving the Jags.
  • Dallas +7.5 at New Orleans - The Cowboys have played well in the last two games, and in spite of two close losses, they have not displayed the signs of their classic December swoon. In fact, I think they'll come out firing Saturday and take a lead, and might even win the game. I hope I'm wrong - I'd love to see Dallas lose by 40 - but my money's on the 'Boys.
  • Buffalo +7.5 vs. New England - The Pats have recently beaten the tar out of the Bills, but this isn't the same Patriots team.
  • Arizona -12 at Detroit - Not a big fan of double-digit road favorites, but the Cards are 5-2 on the road this season, and coming off an embarrassing loss. On top of that, the Lions don't have a defense that can even slow down Warner and Co.
  • Kansas City -1.5 vs Cleveland - Ratings Bonanza Game #1. It's almost a shame that one of these teams will get a win, but KC clearly has more playmakers, so I'll take the Chiefs at home.
  • Philadelphia -8 vs San Francisco - The Niners were the beneficiaries of seven - count 'em - seven turnovers last week, and scored a grand total of 24 points. That's some pathetic offense...exactly what the Eagles defense needs to get healthy.
  • Baltimore -11 vs. Chicago - Not exactly what the Bears envisioned when they traded for Jay Cutler: being 11-point underdogs to a 7-6 team. The Ravens have better RBs, better WRs, a much better OL, and a better defense. And frankly, the way Cutler has been playing, they have a better QB too. That doesn't leave too many reasons to pick the Bears.
  • Denver -14 vs. Oakland - It's both funny and meaningful that the Raiders have turned to Charlie Frye instead of JaMarcus Russell, but it doesn't mean that Frye gives them a realistic chance of winning. Just imagine how different this season might have been for the Raiders if they gave Jeff Garcia the starting job in training camp.
  • San Diego -7 vs. Cincinnati - The Bengals are 6-0 in their division, 3-4 against everyone else. Struggling with the bizarre 'tragedy' of Chris Henry, I can't see them playing well enough to beat the Chargers at home.
  • Green Bay +1 at Pittsburgh - I want to believe the Steelers aren't as awful as they've looked, and that they'll come out and beat the Packers this Sunday. Apparently, a lot of other people want to believe the same thing, as incredibly a team on an 0-3 run (against KC, Oakland, and Cleveland, no less) is giving points to a team on a 5-0 run. But I'm going against my gut and sticking with the numbers.
  • Seattle -7 vs. Tampa Bay - Ratings Bonanza Game #2. Two teams who were non-competitive last week face off in the Great Northwest. The Seahawks are the lesser of two evils.
  • Minnesota -9 at Carolina - The Vikings are a really bad matchup for a team with a struggling OL. Even worse, the Panthers haven't been able to stop the run. I'm predicting a bounceback week for AP: 150+ yards, and a big Vikings win.
  • Washington +3 vs. New York Giants - I don't have a real good feel on this game, so I'll go with the home team.

Note: A bunch of games had no line this week, including Miami/Tennessee, Atlanta/NYJets, and Houston/St. Louis, so I didn't pick them.


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