Friday, October 09, 2009

Week 5 picks

The Eagles and I are back in business this week. Let's hope I fare as well as the Birds after a bye (10-0).

  • Cleveland at Buffalo -6 - I'm really tempted to pick the Browns after the Bills' sorry performance against Miami. But I'm counting on the Bills to show some pride and bounce back at home. If they don't, they're headed toward a 2-14 implosion of a season.
  • Pittsburgh -10.5 at Detroit - The Steelers have burned me twice this season, but I'm sticking with them. I usually love double-digit home dogs, but I can't envision a scenario where the Lions win, and I can't pick an underdog unless they have at least an outside shot of winning.
  • Dallas -9 at Kansas City - I've already heard a couple 'experts' hedging about this game as a possible upset. I'd love to see it, chance. KC can't rush the passer or cover anyone, which means Romo won't be forced into mistakes, which means the Cowgirls win.
  • Minnesota -10 at St. Louis - Couldn't be a better setup for a home dog...getting double-digit points against a team coming off an emotional Monday Night win! Everything screams St. Louis, which means the Vikes cover easily.
  • Oakland at New York Giants -15.5 - JaAwful loses the battle of first-round washouts to David Carr. And maybe, just maybe, Brandon Jacobs scores some points for my fantasy team this week.
  • Tampa Bay at Philadelphia -15 - I still have nightmares about the last time these teams played, when the Eagles were a heavy favorite but lost to a 61-yard FG as time expired. Or maybe it was 91 yards, I can't remember. I know it was really fucking long and never should have gone in, but it did. I wouldn't bet on a repeat, though.
  • Washington +4 at Carolina - Here's an interesting stat: The Redskins haven't played against a team with a win yet (0-0 Giants, 0-1 Rams, 0-2 Lions, 0-3 Bucs, 0-3 Panthers.) Yes, the Redskins suck, but I can't give four points with a winless team.
  • Cincinnati +9 at Baltimore - Sure, the Ravens got screwed by the refs last week, but here's a little secret no one's talking about: their defense just isn't what it used to be. I don't know who wins, but I expect a close, high-scoring affair. So here's a bonus play: Over 42.5
  • Atlanta at San Francisco -2.5 - This should be a fascinating game. The Falcons have a better QB, the 49ers have a better defense. The deciding factor: as good as the Falcons have been over the last two seasons, they haven't won many games on grass.
  • Jacksonville at Seattle NL - no line, no pick. Wouldn't it be great to see the Jags get to 3-2 and be back in the playoff race after being left for dead at 0-2?
  • Houston at Arizona -5.5 - My first thought upon seeing this game: Wow, the O/U should be 50! I was close, it's 50.5. There won't be much defense on either side, but you can count on Houston to have a couple foolish turnovers in a big road game, and that will make the difference.
  • New England -3.5 at Denver - I'm going to keep picking against Denver until I'm right.
  • Indianoplis -4.5 at Tennessee - How often can you take an undefeated team giving only 4.5 points to a winless team? I think the Titans have a chance for a desperate, last-stand, familiar opponent type of game, and apparently the oddsmakers agree. But as Parcells famously said: You are what your record says you are. The numbers speak for themselves: 4-0, 4.5, 0-4.
  • NY Jets -1.5 at Miami - I'm supposed to be impressed that Miami hung 38 on a horrid Buffalo team? Give me a break, Chad Henne vs. Rex Ryan is no contest at all.


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