Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Week 2 Wrap

I haven't counted yet, but I think I'm over .500 for the second week in a row!

  • Falcons 28, Panthers 20 - My pick: Atlanta -6 Win The Panthers did bounce back and keep it competitive, but the Falcons were just too much for them in the end. It's scary when I'm right.
  • Vikings 27, Lions 13 - My pick: Minnesota -10 Win
  • Bengals 31, Packers 24 - My pick: Green Bay -9.5 Loss
  • Texans 34, Titans 31 - My pick: Tennessee -6.5 Loss The Titans are 0-2 with two close losses and suddenly look like a team missing the playoffs.
  • Raiders 13, Chiefs 10 - My pick: Kansas City -3 Loss The Chiefs outgained the Raiders 414-176 and still managed to lose somehow.
  • Jets 16, Pats 10 - My pick: New England -4 Loss Gotta give the Jets a lot of credit...they poked the bear with a stick, and then beat the shit out of it.
  • Saints 48, Eagles 22 - My pick: New Orleans even Win More on this game below.
  • Redskins 9, Rams 7 - My pick: St. Louis +10 Win
  • Cardinals 31, Jags 17 - My pick: Arizona -3 Win
  • 49ers 23, Seahawks 10 - My pick: San Francisco +1 Win
  • Bills 33, Bucs 20 - My pick: Buffalo -5 Win
  • Bears 17, Steelers 14 - My pick: Pittsburgh -3 Loss When's the last time Jeff Reed missed two FGs in a game? I can't remember either.
  • Ravens 31, Chargers 26 - My pick: Baltimore +3 Win
  • Broncos 27, Browns 6 - My pick: Cleveland +3 Loss Mangenius strikes again.
  • Giants 33, Cowboys 31 - My pick: New York +3 Win
  • Colts 27, Dolphins 23 - My pick: Indianapolis -4 Push

That's a record of 9-6-1 for the week, 20-11-1 for the season. If you'd actually been betting with me, you'd have made some decent money. Of course, I haven't been betting on these picks, so I can't expect you to.

More on the Eagles game:
A lot of the 'analysis' of this game has demonized the Eagles defense and praised Drew Brees. Brees might be the best QB in the game right now, and the Eagles defense didn't play as well as they could have, but the real story of this game was turnovers and poor special teams play. The Eagles turned the ball over twice inside their own 25 and shanked two more punts to start Saints drives at the 50. I don't care how your defense plays, giving an offense like the Saints four drives at the 50 or better will make it tough to win.

For the game, the Eagles outgained the Saints, had the same number of first downs, and converted the same percentage of third downs. Brees did exactly what a great QB should do - take advantage of the opportunities he was handed - but don't buy the nonsense about him 'picking apart' the Eagles. Hidden yards and turnovers were the difference.

I was disappointed with the defensive gameplan. I expected pressure up the middle combined with press coverage, but instead we got a lot of 4-man rush with soft zone behind it. They also played a lot of base defense, when I would have treated Shockey and Bush like receivers and lined up in nickel most of the game. Hopefully McDermott learns from this film, and won't make the same mistakes if we face the Saints again in the playoffs.


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