Friday, April 10, 2009

I should write about the economy

But it's just so freaking depressing.

My stock portfolio just crawled back up over the -50% mark, and I'm about to be "on the bench" as a consultant for the first time in years. Car companies are offering to make your payments if you lose your job, and mentions of the bad economy are becoming ubiquitous in commercials, sitcoms, news articles, even mock NFL drafts!

These are good signs that we're at a bottom. Of course, my economic predictive abilities at are beyond worthless (note the -50% above), but I want to document these signs so I can learn from them later. The savings rate in this country is positive again, and unemployment is at record levels. This definitely isn't good news for people who aren't working, but it's surely a sign that we're on the rebound. A stock market that's moving forward, combined with high unemployment, is generally predictive of an upswing in business spending 6-9 months out.

Would it surprise me if there's another shoe to drop? No, I can't say much would surprise me at this point. But we might be in for a GM bankruptcy, which would be quickly followed by predictions of financial catastrophe, as major suppliers threaten to go under as well. As and gloomy as this might get, I have to believe this would be a truly cathartic washout moment...classic bottom behavior.


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