Monday, April 09, 2007

Clean up

Cleaned up the portfolio a little last week, dumping Commerce, Schering, and UPS. I bought a little Yamana, a gold company, on Cramer's recommendation. Yamana is the only gold company in the world opening up new mines, so there are actually two ways to win...growth and an increased price in gold.

Gold is bound to skyrocket once we go to war with Iran. Yes, they backed down from the hostage standoff last week, but that was due to a miscalculation of public (non-)support in their own country, not because they are afraid or unwilling to pull the tails of tigers. They'll continue fomenting unrest in Iraq, they'll continue making nuclear weapons, and they'll continue supporting Hezbollah in their war against Israel. Eventually, it all leads back to the same place: war with Iran. While I certainly hope I'm wrong, I'll position myself to profit if I'm right.

Speaking of Iraq, I suggest reading this blog post from someone who was there and experienced the mess first hand. Don't settle for my summary, but basically Iraqis don't know what they want...they just know they want something better. The U.S. has screwed up their opportunity to be "welcomed as liberators", and we've done a horrible job of stabilizing/rebuilding the country, but it may not be any worse than it was before we arrived. The Iraqis want us to provide security, disarm the militias, and rebuild the infrastructure, but they want us to leave too. Yes, there's a contradiction, but I might feel confused and conflicted myself after enduring the national traumas that have shaken Iraq.


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