Wednesday, January 05, 2011

NFL Prediction Scorecard

At the beginning of the season, I did a team-by-team preview that included predictions about the finishing order of all NFL teams. I pointed out how, in spite of steady 50% turnover rate in the playoff field over the last decade, media pundits routinely picked the same teams. Turnover ranged from 12% to 25% - I was unable to find a single NFL 'expert' on,, or who predicted a statistically reasonable amount of change.

Oddly, this was the most stable playoff field in seven years, with only 5/12 (42%) teams changing. Still, that's a lot close to 50% than the 20% favored by safe-picking pundits.

So, enough stalling, how did I do?

I predicted 7/12 playoff teams correctly, a meager 58%. Doesn't sound like much, until you start comparing it against the other experts.

  • Vic Carucci: 6/12, didn't think the Patriots (14-2) would make it in.
  • Gil Brandt: 7/12, liked the Texans and the Cowboys to make conference championships
  • Bucky Brooks: 8/12, he kicked my ass, so I won't point out that he whiffed on the Patriots also.
  • Pat Kirwan: 6/12, had the Bengals (4-12) in the Super Bowl.
  • Jason La Canfora: 7/12, rode the Titans to the AFC championship.
  • Michael Lombardi: 5/12, Chargers in the Super Bowl.
  • Steve Wyche: 6/12, Cowboys in the NFC Championship.

Meanwhile, Don Banks only picks division winners, so his numbers don't compare neatly. He got exactly 1/8 right, but four of his division winners made it in as wildcards, so it's a better than a 12.5% performance, but I'm not sure how to measure it.

So what does this mean? Even in a year where the playoff turnover was less than the historical average, I still fared better than your average paid NFL pundit. Exactly one picked more teams correctly than me, and most picked less.


Post a Comment

<< Home